赤字财政预算下我国国债对经济增长的影响研究  

National Debt Impact on Economic Growth under the Budget Deficit

作　　者：史峰赫 陈默[1] 张屹山[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学,长春130012

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2014年第3期66-70,共5页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国潜在经济增长率计算及结构转换路径研究"(项目批准号:12&ZD197)

摘　　要：本文首先具体回顾了我国国债恢复发行30年来国债实践的演进过程,并根据国债发行规模的变化及同期我国经济形势和政策制定,把我国国债实践发展经历划分为5个阶段。在此基础上具体分析了国债发行量、财政赤字、财政收入之间数量及占比关系。接下来通过实证分析检验了国债发行对于经济增长的影响,实证结果显示我国国债发行对于经济增长长期存在正向的拉动效应。This paper first reviews the specific issue of the national debt in 30 years to restore the evolution of debt practice, and in accordance with changes in the size and the issuance of treasury bonds over the same period China＇s economic situation and policy develop- ment, the development of practice experience the national debt is divided into five phases. On this basis, this paper analyzes of the bond issuance, fiscal deficits, fiscal revenue relationship between the quantity and proportion in detail. Then through the issuance of treasury bonds empifieul analysis examines the impact on economic growth, and empirical results show that our long- term treasury bonds for eco- nomic growth has a positive pull effect.

关 键 词：国债 经济增长 赤字预算 

分 类 号：F014.7[经济管理—政治经济学]