基于生长曲线的行业业扩用电趋势研究  

Research of business expanding electric consumption trend based on growth curves

作　　者：余向前[1] 王林信[1] 张维静 罗欣 赵燃 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省电力公司,兰州730030 [2]北京清软创新科技有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2014年第2期21-25,共5页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：量化业扩报装业务对电力市场的影响,是从用电根源处把控未来电力变动的关键。在参照生长曲线特性的基础上,结合客户业扩报装后用电的特点,对典型客户业扩用电生长曲线建立模型并进行算法研究,利用主元分析法汲取得到行业业扩用电生长曲线,以瞬时生长率为基值,拐点识别为依据,实现曲线的分阶段解读,完成行业业扩用电的特质剖析。结果证明生长曲线很好地反映了钢铁行业业扩用电发展趋势,对科学地预测有切实的指导意义。Quantifying business expanding which impacts the electricity market, is the key of controlling the electricity changes in future. Based on growth curve characters, combined with the electricity characteristics of typical industry customers after business expanding, expanding power industry growth curves of typical customers were modeled and computed. A model which was extracted by principal component analysis was completed. The arti- cle used the instantaneous growth rate and the iuflection points to do a phased curve modeling, and completed expansion of the industry sector analysis of the characteristics of electricity. Example was given to illustrate these models could reflect the developing trend of a typical steel industry very well, and this conclusion will likely to be a significant guidance for predicting scientifically and effectively.

关 键 词：业扩 主元分析 生长曲线 瞬时生长加率 用电趋势 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]