基于Hadgem2_ES的气候变化对金华江流域枯水变化的影响评估  

Hadgem2_ ES-based Impact of Climate Change on Low Flow of the Jinhua River Basin

作　　者：高希超[1] 马冲[1] 朱冠天 朱仟 许月萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院水文水资源研究所,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江省水文局,浙江杭州310009

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期137-141,共5页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA24320);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379183;50809058)

摘　　要：气候变化引发降雨径流等水文要素的变化已经成为学界的共识,浙江省内近年来频发的气候极端事件更是引起众多学者的重视。枯水水文作为水文学的一部分,分析其变化有其积极的实际意义。选取了金华江流域1975-2004年的日降水、温度和径流资料,使用多站统计降尺度方法,基于最新CMIP5中的Hadgem2_ES模型,利用GR4J水文模型模拟了未来(2071-2100年)的径流,重点分析了几个重要枯水指数7Q10和30Q10的变化。结果表明,未来这两个指数都有明显的上升趋势,即气候变化可能缓和金华江流域未来的枯水情况。It is a common view that climate change has influenced hydrological elements such as precipi-tation,temperature and river flow.Zhejiang Province has witnessed the climate extremes with high fre-quency in recent years and it has drawn a lot attention of hydrologists.Low flow hydrology is a very im-portant part of hydrology.It is quite meaningful to analyze the low flow.The historical daily precipitati-on,temperature and flow in 1975 -2004 in the Jinhua River Basin are used as baseline data in this stud-y.Climate projections from Hadgem2_ES of CMIP5 for 2070-2100 are downscaled to station-scale pro-jections based on a multi-site statistical downscaling model GIST.The flows in future period are generated by a lumped hydrological model GR4J.Two typical low flow indices 7Q10 and 30Q10 are calculated and compared.The results show that the two indices have obvious rising trends,implying a better situation in low flow periods under climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 多站统计降尺度 枯水 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]