基于层次分析法的机械元件失效率预计  

Failure rate prediction of mechanical components based on analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：谭世勇[1] 索双富[1] 陈绍仁 

机构地区：[1]清华大学机械工程系,北京100084 [2]约翰克兰科技(天津)有限公司,天津300384

出　　处：《机械设计》2014年第3期6-10,共5页Journal of Machine Design

摘　　要：机械元件失效率预计可用于不同机械系统构型的可靠性论证,对机械可靠性设计起着指导的作用。在机械系统设计初期,评分预计法是简便有效的可靠性预计方法。文中就大量元件的评分预计方法存在的评分难度大、评分结果不确定的问题,提出了采用层次分析法,将大量元件评估分解为元件之间的两两比较,大大降低评分难度,从而提高评分预计的质量。When comparing the reliability of systems with different structure, it is necessary to firstly make a prediction of hazard rate of mechanical components which is the guide for the mechanical design based on reliability. In the initial design stage of the mechanical system,reliability prediction method based on the expertise empirical appraisal is a simple and effective way to carry on the project. In this paper, a new method based on the analytic hi- erarchy process（AHP） is proposed to solve the shortcomings of the method based on expertise appraisal when dealing with the predic- tion of huge number components that brings difficulty and uncer- tainty on expertise judgment. This original method adopts the ana- lytic hierarchy process to degrade the comparison of the mass com- ponents into a pair wise comparison which largely reduce the diffi- culty for expertise to make judgments and hence make reliability prediction more exactly in accordance with the expertise experi-

关 键 词：机械元件可靠性 失效率预计 层次分析法 机械系统可靠性 

分 类 号：TH12[机械工程—机械设计及理论]