差分自回归移动平均模型及其在寄生虫病等传染病预测中的研究及应用  

Application of auto regressive integrated moving average model in infectious diseases prediction

作　　者：王强[1] 许静[1] 周晓农[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所、世界卫生组织疟疾、血吸虫病和丝虫病合作中心、卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室,上海200025

出　　处：《国际医学寄生虫病杂志》2014年第2期109-113,共5页International JOurnal of Medical Parasitic Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金（1301454）;中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所监测预警团队建设项目;

摘　　要：通过时间序列分析可对传染病的发生、发展进行及时准确地预测预警,对有效防治传染病具有重要意义.该文在分析时间序列分析特点的基础上,就其中精度较高的差分自回归移动平均模型（auto regressive integrated moving average model,ARMIA）的分类和建模过程及其在寄生虫病等传染病预测中的应用等方面进行阐述,以为科研与防治工作者提供参考.It is greatly valuable for prevention and control of infectious diseases by predicting and early warning their occurrence and tendency through time-series analysis. On the basis of analysing the characteris- tic of time-series method, an overview was conducted for auto regressive integrated moving average model （ARIMA model）, one accurate predicting model, which covered its classification, modeling process and appli- cation in forecasting of infectious diseases, thus to provide reference for scientists and diseases control staffs.

关 键 词：时间序列 差分自回归移动平均模型 传染病 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]