我国货币政策的城乡区域不对称效应研究  

The Impact of Monetary Policy Asymmetry on Urban and Rural Areas in China

作　　者：张伟进[1] 胡春田[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,陕西西安710049 [2]中国文化大学社会科学学院,台湾台北11114

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2014年第2期66-76,共11页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"产业升级背景下制度质量对我国利用优势和效益的影响研究"(13XJY001)

摘　　要：VAR模型实证显示货币政策对城乡居民消费存在显著不对称效应,乡村居民消费对货币政策冲击的反应程度较城镇居民更大且调整时间更长。为深入剖析货币政策城乡不对称效应的产生机制,文章从城乡区域的金融发展不平衡视角,提供了一个城乡居民具有资产配置选择差异的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)理论模型。结果显示:DSGE模型可以很好地模拟出VAR模型中城乡居民消费对货币政策冲击具有不对称调整的脉冲响应路径;而城乡居民资产配置选择差异正是造成货币政策城乡不对称效应的重要解释因素。In light of the dual economy in China, VAR model confirms that there exist monetary policy asymmetric effects in which rural consumption tends to respond with a larger magnitude and is more persistent to a monetary shock than its counterpart. To analyze the mechanism underlying this monetary policy asymmetry, we further develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model that captures the imbalanced financial development between urban and rural areas in China. Our DSGE model performs satisfactorily well in the sense that it replicates the impulse response of both urban and rural consumption to a monetary shock in the VAR model. Our analysis indicates that difference in asset allocation between urban and rural residents suffices to generate the asymmetric impacts on urban and rural areas of monetary policies in China.

关 键 词：货币政策 城乡二元经济 资产配置 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]