考虑历史洪水资料的期望概率权重矩法参数估计统计试验研究  

Study on Statistical Test of Expected Probability Weighted Moments Method for Parameter Estimation Considering Historical Flood Information

作　　者：王俊珍[1] 宋松柏[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水文》2014年第1期7-13,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51179160;50879070;50579065);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110204110017)

摘　　要：为有效利用历史洪水资料,提高洪水资料系列参数的估计精度,研究期望概率权重矩法在广义极值分布参数估计中的应用。采用蒙特卡洛试验研究期望概率权重矩法的统计特性,并与部分概率权重矩法做比较。结果表明:期望概率权重矩法具有良好的稳定统计特性,并且是具有历史洪水资料系列进行参数估计的一种简单、稳定和有效的参数估计方法,具有推广意义。In order to make better use of historical flood information and improve the parameter estimation precision,this paper studied the expected probability weighted moments method for general extreme value distribution when historical flood information is presented.The statistical performance of the expected probability weighted moments for estimation of population parameters by Monte-Carlo method was performed,and the method of the partial probability weighted moments was compared.The results show that the expected probability weighted moments ha stable statistical characteristics,and it is a simple,stable and effective method when historical flood information is available,and can be extended to other hydrological fields.

关 键 词：参数估计 期望概率权重矩法 洪水资料 广义极值分布 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]