美联储量化宽松货币政策(QE)将成为常态化  

Fed's QE and Its Potential Normalization in Future

作　　者：廖国民[1] 陈万灵[1] 何传添[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学,广州51006

出　　处：《广东外语外贸大学学报》2014年第1期16-23,共8页Journal of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"国际金融危机后全球需求结构变化研究"(11JZD021);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目<金融抑制;二元经济与非正规金融:对中国的案例研究>(13YJA790063);广东省哲学社会科学"十一五"规划2010年度一般项目"转轨时期我国金融脆弱性特殊生成机理研究"(GD10CLJ02)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：尽管美联储近期宣布将逐步退出量化宽松货币政策(QE),但本文研究认为,美联储QE在未来将成为常态化,我们的判断依据是:1.美国联邦政府债务危机的持续恶化——QE常态化的现实需要;2.Q E具有短期有效长期负面的特征——Q E常态化的效应依赖;3.美联储对传统职能与规则的突破——Q E常态化的制度支撑;4.美元霸权体系的存在——QE常态化的货币支撑。量化宽松常态化将对中国经济社会带来全方位的影响,为应对量化宽松常态化的冲击,本文提出了七个方面的应对举措。The Fed recently announced it will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing monetary policy （QE）, but we think QE will become normalized in the future. The reasons are as follows： first, the federal government＇ s debt crisis deteriorated continuously, entailing substantially a normalization of QE. Second, QE is effective in the short term but negative in the long term, effecting dependently its normalization. Third, the Federal Reserve System has broken through the traditional functions and rules, thus getting institutional support for such normalization. Fourth, there remains a dollar＇ s hegemony system, hence monetary support for QE normalization. The normalization of QE will have an all-around influence on China＇ s economy and society. To cope with the shock from normalization of quantitative easing, this paper discusses seven countermeasures.

关 键 词：美联储 量化宽松 债务危机 美元霸权 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]