基于多时间尺度SPI的闽江流域干湿变化与洪旱事件识别  

Based on Multiple Time Scales of SPI Dry / wet Conditions Variation and Identification of Flood and Drought Events in Minjiang River of Fujian

作　　者：王跃峰[1] 陈兴伟[1,2,3] 陈莹[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007 [2]湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福建福州350007 [3]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福建福州350007

出　　处：《山地学报》2014年第1期52-57,共6页Mountain Research

基　　金：2012年福建省公益所专项(N00298);国家自然科学基金(50979015)~~

摘　　要：为分析闽江流域气候干湿变化及其径流响应,以闽江流域25个气象站1960-2006年逐月降水资料以及竹岐水文站月径流资料为基础,采用标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index,简称SPI）和Pearson相关分析法进行研究,结果表明：1.长时间尺度的SPI在分析气候干湿变化上更具实用性,更能清楚反映长期干湿变化特征；2.短时间尺度（1～3个月）SPI与径流存在高相关性,其中2个月时间尺度的SPI与径流的相关性最强；且短时间尺度上二者的相关性有季节差异,表现为春、夏季（R＞0.75）相关性高于秋、冬季（R＜0.7）；3.2个月尺度SPI序列能够较精确地识别流域性的特大洪水事件和主要旱灾,对流域性特大洪水的监测和预报具有潜在应用价值.Based on 25 meteorological monthly precipitation and discharges in Zhuqi Hydrological Station from 1960 to 2006, the climate dry/wet changes and its hydrological response are analyzed through Standardized Precipitation Index and Pearson correlation coefficient in the Minjiang River basin of Fujian, China. The results are as following： Firstly, when analyzing the climate dry/wet changes, SPI at the longer time scales show greater utility and are able to reflect long period characteristics berrte. Secondly, there are high Pearson correlations between the SPI and dischar- ges at shorter time scales （ 1 - 3 months） and the maximum correlation is found on the time scales of 2 months ; what＇ s more, there are important seasonal differences in the response of the river discharges to shorter time scales of SPI, and the correlations of spring and summer （ R 〉 0. 75 ） are found higher than that in fall and winter （ R 〈 0. 70）. However, a valuable fact is found that SPI at 2 - month time scale can recognize the main flood and drought events and what＇s more, it has potential usefulness for basin flood monitoring and predicting.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数(SPI) 时间尺度 水文响应 洪旱事件 闽江流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]