基于系统动力学的土地利用变化研究——以池州市为例  

Study on Variation of Land Using Based on Ssystem Dynamics——Chizhou city taking as example

作　　者：张长勤[1] 徐小琪[2] 吴坚[3] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学理学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院,合肥230036 [3]安徽农业大学经济技术学院,合肥230036

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第1期110-115,共6页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省国土资源科技项目(2011-K-23)

摘　　要：本文主要运用系统动力学的理论和方法,分析研究了池州市土地规划的特点;通过建立流程图、设立方程建立了池州市用地规划系统动力学模型。通过对模型的反复调试、有效性检验,验证模型真实可靠。该模型能够系统地、定量地、动态地描述社会、经济和用地类型等因素对用地规划的影响和要求;在此基础上,以2002年为基准年,对池州市2010年-2030年土地利用结构数量变化进行模拟,分别得出了2010年至2030年池州市适应于不同社会经济条件的三种用地方案。最终结果可为规划部门制定和修改用地规划提供定量化的辅助分析;也可对政府有关部门起到辅助决策的作用。The theory and method of system dynamics was applied in this paper. The characteristics of land planning in ChiZhou City was analyzed and described. The SD model of land utilization in ChiZhou City was constructed by constructing flow chart and equation. The reliability was tested by debugging the model time after time, and involving validity test. Factors like society, economy and type of land use effect on land using planning and requirement can be described by the model systematically, quantificationally and dynamically. Basing on these, 2002 was set as base year, the variation of land utilization structure in ChiZhou City from 2010 -2030 was simulated. Three projects of land using in 2010 -2030 were obtained respectively according to different social and economic conditions. The results would provide planning department with quantitative auxiliary for designing and modifying land use. Moreover, it would be meaningful that the results could help certain department of government to make decision.

关 键 词：系统动力学 系统动力学模型 土地利用 规划 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]