人口转变、经济发展与卫生支出增长——以人口普查为基础的因素分解  

Demographic Transition,Economic Growth and China's Health Care Expenditure Growth:Decomposition Analysis Based on Censuses

作　　者：任强[1] 张洁羽 吕智浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与发展》2014年第1期22-32,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助(12YJA840019)

摘　　要：采用因素分解方法考察中国卫生支出在过去近30年的增长特点,将卫生总费用增长及卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化,分解为人口数量增长、人口结构变动、健康模式变化和非人口学因素影响四个独立可比的部分。结果显示,尽管非人口学因素决定着卫生总费用增长,人口学因素却主导着卫生总费用占GDP比重的变化。人口学因素中,人口总量缓慢增长和人口结构快速转变推动着卫生支出规模不断上升,但健康模式变化显著削弱了这种趋势。China＇ s health care expenditure has been increasing sharply during the tast zu years, albeit at different rate in different times. Using factor decomposition model, the paper firstly decomposes health care expenditure growth and the ratio variation of health care expendi- ture to GDP into four comparable parts：total population growth,population structure transition, health pattern change and non - demographic factor. It＇ s found that while demographic factor has a lower impact on health care expenditure than non - demographic factor, it has a greater impact on the ratio variation of health care expenditure to GDP. While total population growth and population structure transition are strongly pushing the health care expenditure to increase, health pattern change is greatly weakening this trend.

关 键 词：卫生支出 人口数量增长 人口结构转变 健康模式变化 非人口学因素 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]