中国城市的住房供给弹性、影响因素和房价表现  

Housing Supply Elasticity,Determinant Factors and Housing Price Performance of Urban China

作　　者：刘学良[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第4期125-136,F0003,共13页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"宏观经济视角下的中国住房市场价格研究"(项目批准号71173120);国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国式分权模式下城市政府住房市场调控行为的特征测量与规律研究"(项目批准号71003060)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：尽管已经有许多研究试图从需求层面,如货币、利率、人口等角度来解释中国房地产价格的波动现象,但目前从供给层面研究中国房地产市场问题的文献则相对不足。尤其是中国的诸多城市大都享有相似的人口结构轨迹、经济周期、货币和利率等因素,但最终不同城市的房价表现却有着巨大的差异。本文试图利用住房供给弹性来分析这一问题。首先,我们估计了中国35个大中城市的分别的和加总的住房供给价格弹性,发现中国的总住房供给价格弹性为2.65,明显小于用美国大都会数据估计得到的约7.3,中国城市的住房供给能力明显小于美国市场;其次,研究发现,在控制了其他因素的情况下,对中国城市的住房供给弹性影响最大的两个因素为每单位土地经济密集度和地方政府住房开发管制;最后,结果显示,城市的住房供给弹性对当地的房价增长率具有很强的解释作用,这在很大程度上解释了住房供给制度改革以来不同城市巨大的房价增长率差异。这个结果提醒我们,采取措施努力增加住房供给是抑制房价增长率的根本途径之一。Ahhough tbere are a number of papers that have established good view about China＇s housing price growth from demand side such as currency, interest rate and demography, few research has been documented to probe China＇s housing market issues from supply side. In particular, cities in （Thina bave been undergoing similar population growth, business cycle, monetary policy etc. , but the housing price growth shows significant differences across cities. This paper investigates China＇s housing market from the persl）ective of housing supply. Similar to Green et a1（2005）, we estimate the aggregate and disaggregate housing supply elasticity of price with data of 3,5 major cities in China from 1998 to 200!）, and find that the aggregate housing price elasticity is 2.65. whicb is significantly lower than American resuh of 7.3 in Green et al. Meanwhile. after controlling other factors, we find that the two major delerminant factors of housing supply elasticity across cities are the economic activities density and local government development regulation. Finally, our results show that local housing supply elasticity is powerful in explaining the long-run housing price growth rate across cities, which shall explain why cities bear such big housing price growth rate difference in the long-run. This reminds us that enhancing and expanding housing supply is the vital way to curb housing price growth.

关 键 词：房价 住房供给弹性 政府管制 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]