季节因素是否影响了我国大豆进口市场格局——基于拓展H-O模型的理论分析与实证检验  

Season and China's Soybean Import Market Structure: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Extended HO Model

作　　者：林大燕[1] 朱晶[1] 吴国松[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]淮阴师范学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第3期44-51,共8页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD046);国家自然科学基金项目(71173111);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2011ZDAXM007)的资助;2012年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ12_0302)的支持

摘　　要：本文首先在传统的H-O模型中引入季节要素,从理论上论证了处于某种农作物生产季节的国家在该种农产品上具有比较优势,并进一步论证了生产季节对一国农产品进口市场结构具有重要影响。接着,利用中国1995年1月至2013年3月的大豆进口数据对上述理论进行实证检验,结果表明季节是影响我国大豆进口市场结构的重要因素。进口市场转移是各大豆进口来源国比较优势动态发展的结果,顺应各国大豆比较优势的季节变化,充分利用南北半球在大豆生产上的季节互补性,做好大豆进口在各国之间的季节转换与衔接,才能使我国大豆进口利益获得最大化,保证我国持续利用国外市场保障国内大豆的稳定供给及长期粮食安全。This paper firstly introduces the season factor into traditional HO model and demonstrates theoretically that countries in the production season of one crop have a comparative advantage on that crop and that the production sea- son has a huge influence on a country＇s import market structure of that crop. Then, using data of China＇s soybean imports from Jan. 1995 to Mar. 2013, this paper makes an empirical test on the theory analyzed above and the results show that the season plays an important role on China＇s soybean import market struc- ture. Shifts in the soybean import market structure are the result of dynamic de- velopment of import sources＇ comparative advantage on soybeans. China should fully adapt itself to seasons and make full use of seasonal complementarities in both hemispheres and maximize the interest of using foreign markets to ensure continued domestic supply of soybeans and long-term food safety.

关 键 词：季节因素 比较优势 进口市场结构 大豆 H-O模型 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]