华北电网地区饱和电力需求研究  

The research on the saturated electricity demand of North China Grid

作　　者：姚愉芳[1] 陈丽萍[2] 沈卫东[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社科院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [2]华北电网有限公司,北京市100053

出　　处：《中国电力》2014年第3期74-79,115,共7页Electric Power

摘　　要：分析了国内外不同发展阶段的国家电力需求发展历程,证实了一个国家在经济发展过程中存在电力需求增速由高到低的过程,存在饱和电力需求的事实;建立了适用于大区域饱和电力需求预测的指标评价体系;结合华北实际情况,研究分析了华北电网6省市区工业化过程中经济发展、产业结构、劳动力结构、城市化率、消费模式、人均收入水平等因素,运用系统动力学模型计算了华北电网六省市饱和电力需求达到时间及数量范围。This paper firstly analyzed the developments of the electricity consumption n different developing stages for different countries.It is confirmed that the growth rate of the electricity demand is from high to low during the economy developing process in developed countries,and these countries＇ electricity demand is now saturated.An index evaluation system for forecasting the regional saturated electricity demand was then established.Based on the real situations of six provinces in North China grid,factors during the industrialization process,such as economy development,industrial structure,labor structure,urbanization rate,consumption mode,per capita income level were investigated and analyzed.Finally,the time and the quantity scopes of the saturated electricity demand were calculated by using the system dynamics model.

关 键 词：华北电网 饱和电力需求 指标体系 饱和时间 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]