中菲海上安全关系的突变及其原因与影响  

The Sudden Change of Sino-Philippines Maritime Security Relations: Process, Reason, and Influence

作　　者：鞠海龙[1,2,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学新闻传播学 [2]暨南大学国际关系学院,广州510632 [3]南海战略研究基地 [4]国家海洋局南海维权技术与应用重点实验室

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2013年第6期70-82,152,共13页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：国家海洋局南海维权技术与应用重点实验室2012年度开放基金“菲律宾南海政策与我国南海维权危机应对机制研究”(项目编号:1215);教育部社科基金项目“南海周边国家与地区南海政策与中国南海维权”(项目编号:11YJAGJW008);中国海洋发展研究中心重大项目“南海重大战略问题及周边国家政策研究”(项目编号:AOCZDA20120)的资助

摘　　要：菲律宾南海利益诉求与中国南海历史性权利的重叠一直是两国海上安全关系的焦点。黄岩岛对峙事件和菲律宾将南海问题提交国际仲裁使中菲海上安全关系直落谷底。中菲海上安全关系突变是美国再平衡亚洲战略背景下菲律宾亲美政策的产物,也是其国内军事和油气利益集团推动的结果。菲律宾南海政策的变化改变了中菲两国以往相对稳定的海上安全关系。中菲海上安全关系矛盾及其负面影响的迅速扩张直接导致两国关系全面恶化。然而,当人们将审视中菲关系的视角聚焦南海矛盾的时候,原本丰实、厚重的中菲关系已经被抽空。中菲海上安全关系的短时期对立正成为伤害两国各自国家利益的最大隐患。菲律宾在依附美国谋求南海经济与安全利益的过程中,将一个原本睦邻友好的地区内最大的国家——中国——转变成了自己的"敌人";而中国则在南海维权的过程中面临着其在菲律宾经济影响力迅速下滑的困境。中国无法改变美国和菲律宾的对华战略定位。然而,如果从中美战略博弈的高度理解中菲海上安全关系,中国的政策应对将更具战略效能。The maritime security relations between China and the Philippines have been plagued by the disputes on South China Sea. Maritime security relations hit the lowest point after the Philippines submitted the South China Sea issue to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea for arbitration. The sudden change of Sino-Philippines maritime security relations was due to the Philippines' proUS policy and the group interests of military and oil. The Philippines' South China Sea policies made the maritime security relations of the two countries even worse. Meanwhile, the great relations which had been built through the past decades were eroded seriously as the two countries' policies mainly focused on South China Sea disputes. The Philippines made China become a giant and undefeatable enemy for itself. China also has suffered considerable economic losses in the Philippines. If we take Sino-US relations into account, this dispute may be better settled.

关 键 词：菲律宾南海政策 中菲海上安全关系 南海争端 中国海洋权益 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]