淡水养殖池塘水温预测预报模型的应用与检验  

The Application and Inspection of Prediction Model for Water Temperature in Freshwater Aquaculture Pond

作　　者：岑伯明 陈汉春[1,2] 郑晓静[2] 付英杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]慈溪市水产技术推广中心,浙江慈溪315300 [2]浙江海洋学院水产学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《浙江海洋学院学报（自然科学版）》2013年第6期561-563,共3页Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：宁波市海洋与渔业专项资金项目(200801);宁波市农业领域重大科技攻关择优委托项目(2012C10032);宁波市农村科技创新创业资金项目(2013C920017)

摘　　要：采用准差分法消除了池塘水温预测预报模型的自相关,推导简化了日最高水温的预测回归模型,并采用信度分析方法检验了对虾养殖生产后期池塘水温预报的准确性,结果表明预报值与实测值误差较小,信度较高,可应用于养殖生产。This paper introduced the generalized difference method for eliminating autocorrelation in pre-diction model for water temperature in aquaculture pond. The forecast regression model for daily maximum temperature was also simplified. Meanwhile, the temperature prediction accuracy of prawn pond in production tail was tested by using reliability analysis methods. With a result revealing small error and high reliability be-tween predicted values and measured values, the model was proved feasible to aquaculture production.

关 键 词：淡水池塘 水温 预测预报模型 

分 类 号：S915[农业科学—水产科学]