基于可拓物元模型的中国海洋渔业安全评价及预警机制研究  

Safety Assessment and Early Warning Mechanism of China's Marine Fishery Industry Based on the Extension-matter Element Model

作　　者：于谨凯[1] 赵晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋经济》2013年第6期8-16,共9页Marine Economy

基　　金：教育部青年项目"黄渤海近海海域环境安全评估及生态管理(EBM)研究"(10YJC790354);国家自然科学基金面上项目"海域承载力视角下海洋渔业空间布局优化的模型及应用"(71273247)

摘　　要：根据运筹学理论及方法,建立评价海洋渔业安全的可拓物元模型,对2001—2010年海洋渔业的安全度做出评价,结果表明:2002年中国海洋渔业K4(p2002)=max Kj(p2002),处于较不安全状态;2007年K2(p2007)=max Kj(p2007)处于较安全状态;2010年K5(p2010)=max Kj(p2010),处于不安全状态。十年来产业安全的整体水平有些微上升的趋势,但从2009年到2010年,海洋渔业安全仍处于较不安全级别,系统不稳定。海洋渔业增加值占全国主要海洋产业增加值比例、全国海洋捕捞养殖产量和海洋渔业及相关产业就业人数等因素是中国海洋渔业产业安全的主要限制因素。根据海洋渔业安全的指标体系,提出建立中国海洋渔业安全的预警机制。This article established the extension matter element model of marine fishery industry by using operations research theory and methods, made assessment of the security of the marine fishery industry from 2001 to 2010. Results of evaluation show that in 2002, K4 （p2002） = max Kj （p2002）, so the industry is in a relatively unsafe condition, until 2007,K2 （p2007） = max Kj （p2007）, it is in a relatively safe condition, the security status in 2010 is unsafe for K5 （p2010） = max Kj （p2010）, the overall level of industry safety has turned out to be increased in ten years, but from 2009 to 2010, it was back to the state of being unsafe and unstable. The proportions of the added value of marine fishery in that of the national major ocean industries, the national marine fishing breeding production, and the employment of marine fishery and related industry are the major limiting factors to the security of China＇s marine fishery industry. Finally, based on the establishment of marine fishery industry safety indicators system, we establish the early warning mechanism for the safety of China＇s marine fishery industry.

关 键 词：可拓物元模型 海洋渔业 产业安全 预警机制 

分 类 号：F326.4[经济管理—产业经济]