农村消费信贷供给的调整:规模还是结构  

The Supply Adjustment of Rural Consumption Credit: Scale or Structure

作　　者：刘金东[1,2] 冯经纶[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室,上海200433

出　　处：《上海金融》2014年第3期14-20,116,共7页Shanghai Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目标准号71273050);教育部人文社科基金(项目标准号11YJA790008);上海财经大学研究生创新基金(项目编号CXJJ-2012-323;CXJJ-2012-325)的资助

摘　　要：在扩大内需的大背景下，国内学者提出了通过完善农村消费信贷从而提升农村消费的设想．但其理论多着眼于消费信贷的供给规模调整。本文通过建立不同期限消费信贷的经验模型发现．短期消费信贷仅仅充当一种资金拆借和融通工具，并不能促进消费额的提升，只有中长期农村消费信贷能提升农村消费水平，短期消费信贷只能通过资金融通带来消费的短期波动。进一步建立ARDL—ECM模型对1981-2010年时间序列的边限检验发现，我国长期以来中长期消费贷款占比较低，造成农村信贷对农村消费的直接效应存在但并不显著．要想真正发挥农村消费信贷对农村消费的直接效应，关键在于供给结构而非供给规模．提高中长期贷款在农村消费信贷中的比例势在必行。Under the urgency to expand domestic demand, scholars put forward suggestions to increase rural consumption by perfecting rural consumption credit. However, their focus is merely shed on supply scale adjustment. In this paper, through empirical models based on rural con-sumption credit of different periods, we come to the findings that short-term consumption credit can only serve as a financing tool, and cannot pro-mote the consumption amount. Only mid-long term rural consumption credit can improve the rural consumption level. Short-term consumption credit can only bring short-term fluctuations in consumption through financial intermediation. By further constructing the ARDL-ECM model to conduct bounds testing of time series from 1981 to 2010, we find that mid-long term loans accounted for relatively limited proportion in rural con-sumption credit supply and as a result the direct effect of rural credit upon rural consumption was insignificant. It is supply structure rather than supply scale that plays a key role in the direct affecting process of rural consumption credit upon rural consumption. It's necessary to improve the proportion of mid-long term loans in rural consumption credit supply.

关 键 词：农村消费信贷 农村消费 供给结构 边限检验 规模结构 内需 农村居民收入 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] G28[文化科学]