转型期中国油品消费增长分析  

China's oil demand in transition: analysis and prediction

作　　者：郭一凡[1] 朱和[2] 董振宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石化集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2014年第1期105-109,共5页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：近两年,我国汽油和煤油消费增长较快,柴油消费增速大幅下降。这是我国经济结构、产业结构、用油行业调整等多方面因素影响的结果。随着中国经济进入转型期,成品油消费差别增长将成为长期趋势。其中,受中国经济增长由"高速"转向"中速"、第二产业占比下降、投资占GDP的比重下降、铁路等用油行业转型等影响,柴油消费将进入低速增长期;而汽油消费受汽车销量增长和城镇化发展带动,在2020年前将保持中速增长,但2020年后随着中国汽车保有量趋于饱和将进入低速增长期;煤油消费受人均收入持续增长、机场建设快速发展、航空周转率持续提升的带动仍将保持较快增长。此外,替代能源发展可能加快,对汽油的影响将大于柴油。在基准情景下,预计2013-2020年我国柴油、汽油和煤油消费的年均增速分别为3.0%、6.0%和8.0%,2020年消费量分别达到2.03亿吨、1.3亿吨和3511万吨;2021-2030年我国柴油、汽油和煤油消费的年均增速将分别下滑至2.5%、2.0%和4.0%,2030年消费量分别达到2.6亿吨、1.6亿吨和5198万吨。In the last two years China's gasoline and kerosene demand maintained rapid growth, while diesel demand growth sharply declined. This has been influenced not only by the economic downturn, but also by many other factors including structural economic adjustment, industrial reorganization and transformation in industrial oil-consumption patterns. As China's economy enters into a transition period, different speeds of development in demand for different oil products will become the long-term trend. China's economic growth will shift from 'high' to 'medium' speed, and the shares both of secondary industry and of investment in GDP will decline significantly. Transformation in railways' and other industries' oil-consumption patterns etc. will put China's diesel consumption into a period of slow growth. Because of the automobile market boom and the progress of urbanization, China's gasoline consumption will maintain moderate growth before 2020. But after that car ownership will tend to get saturated; so gasoline consumption growth will slow down. Kerosene consumption will maintain rapid growth on account of steadily increasing per capita income, rapid development of airport construction, and continued comparatively fast increase in pressure driving the high sustained aviation turnover rate. In addition, the development of alternative energy will accelerate and have more impact on gasoline than diesel. Under the baseline scenario, China's diesel demand will reach 203 million tons in 2020 with an average annual growth rate of 3%, and reach 206 million tons in 2030 at a 2.5% rate. China's gasoline demand will reach 130 million tons in 2020 at a 6% rate, and 160 million tons in 2030 at a 2% rate. China's kerosene demand will reach 35 million tons in 2020 at an 8% rate, and reach 52 million tons in 2030 at a 4% rate.

关 键 词：中国 油品消费 汽油 柴油 煤油 转型期 2020年 2030年 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]