世界原油贸易走势与中国进口形势分析  

China's oil import dependence in the context of global crude oil trading trends

作　　者：徐舜华[1] 曹斌[1] 郝立新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2014年第1期110-116,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：21世纪以来,世界原油贸易量持续上涨,进出口格局基本稳定,但贸易流向有所调整,亚洲逐步成为世界原油进口的重心。中东始终是原油出口的主要地区,美洲和前苏联地区出口规模持续增长。中国的原油消费增速高于产量增速,对外依存度不断攀升;进口来源逐渐扩大范围,从中东和非洲向南美和周边资源国扩展。美国页岩油产量大幅提升,对轻质低硫原油的进口需求降低;加拿大仍以美国为重点出口方向,但将推进向亚洲出口的通道建设;中东仍将是最大的原油出口地区,俄罗斯和中亚将加大向东部的出口。未来中国的原油进口需求将进一步提高,中东和俄罗斯是中国原油进口的主要资源地,加拿大油砂的快速发展将为中国石油进口提供新的资源选择。In the 21st century the world's crude oil trade has kept rising with stable import and export patterns, but trade flows have adjusted as Asia has gradually become the pole for world crude oil imports. The Middle East has always been a major area of crude oil exports, and North America's and the former Soviet Union's exports have continued to grow. China's oil consumption has grown faster than output, increasing foreign dependence; the scope of import sources has gradually expanded broadly from the Middle East and Africa to South America and to peripheral countries, including Australia. Substantial increase in U.S. shale oil production has reduced demand for light, sweet crude oil imports; the United States and Eastern Canada are still the key export destination, but exports will increasingly be channeled to Asia; the Middle East will remain the largest crude oil exporter, but Russia, and Central Asia will increase exports to the Far East. The future for satisfying China's crude oil import demand will improve further: the Middle East and Russia are China's primary crude oil import resources, but the rapid development of Canadian oil sands provides new resources to choose from for China's oil imports.

关 键 词：世界 原油贸易 原油进口 原油消费 进口来源 建议 

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