海外油气勘探项目风险价值评估模型  

A method for risk valuation of oil and gas exploration projects abroad

作　　者：干卫星[1] 董翠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2014年第1期175-177,185,共4页International Petroleum Economics

基　　金：国家科技重大专项"中东中亚重点油气勘探开发项目经济评价"(编号:2011ZX05031-005)资助

摘　　要：通过建立考虑经济成功率的价值评估模型,在现有的仅考虑项目资源风险的决策树模型基础上,进一步考虑项目的商业化风险,对勘探项目期望价值进行科学评估,是折现现金流法与风险概率分析法的有机结合,可以提高投资决策的科学性,有效规避项目投资风险。Reasonabl assessment of economic risk in exploration projects abroad is a prerequisite for investors to make decisions scientifically. By incorporating the economic success rate into the existing decision tree methodology that otherwise considers only project resource risk, the proposed risk valuation method goes even a step further by taking into account the success rate not only of exploration, but also of oil-gas commercialization after successful exploration, in constructing a scientific estimate of the value/cost of undertaking the project. It is a combination of discounted-cash-flow and probabilistic risk analysis methodologies, which can raise the scientific level of investment decision-making and be effective in reducing investment risks.

关 键 词：勘探项目 经济成功率 地质成功率 商业化成功率 价值评估方法 风险 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]