中国区域经济差异的测度及预测  

The Forecast and Measure of the Regional Economic Disparities in China

作　　者：万道侠[1] 杨冬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学统计学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2014年第1期23-27,共5页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目"我国区域经济增长的制度影响与空间计量研究"(12BJL065);教育部人文社会科学研究项目"我国区域经济差异的制度考量与实证研究"(09YJA790125);山东省自然基金项目"增长回归框架下的山东区域经济差异的制度解析及对策研究"(ZR2010GM008)

摘　　要：区域经济差异是我国经济发展过程中必须面对的问题之一。本文基于我国1978—2012年省际面板数据,运用极差率、变异系数、基尼系数和经济区位熵等方法揭示了我国各区域之间的经济差异及其变动特征,并通过R/S分形理论对我国区域经济差异的未来趋势做出预测,最后得出以下结论:(1)1978—2012年我国区域经济相对差异在总体上呈下降的趋势;(2)2006—2012年我国东中西部区际差异存在下降的趋势,中西部差异明显缩小;(3)R/S分析结果表明,2012—2022年我国区域经济相对差异将持续减小。The regional economic disparity is one of the problems we have to face in the process of economic development. Based on the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2012,this paper applies Extreme Rate,Coeffi- cient Variation,Gini Coefficient and economic Location Quotient to reveal the economic differences between regions and the characteristics of change in China,and applies the R/S fractal theory to predict the future trends of China＇s regional economic differences. Finally we obtain the following conclusions：（1）the overall relative disparities of regional economic development present a downward trend from 1978 to 2012;（2）the regional economic disparities,especially between the central and the west region,became narrow during 2006--2012;（3）the R/S analysis results show that the relative disparities of regional economic development will continue to decrease in the period of 2012--2022 .

关 键 词：区域经济 变异系数 基尼系数 区位熵 R S 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]