区域耕地粮食生产保障能力及其风险评价方法  

Risk assessment method of grain production guarantee capacity of regional cultivated land

作　　者：季翔[1] 刘黎明[1] 起晓星[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地资源管理系,北京100193

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2014年第7期219-226,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金项目(41130526);中国农业大学研究生科研创新专项资助项目(2012YJ047)

摘　　要：区域耕地粮食生产保障能力是区域耕地对综合食物安全所需粮食的保障程度,受区域耕地资源和社会经济等方面的影响。科学评价区域耕地的粮食生产保障能力及其存在风险,对于解决综合食物安全问题起着关键性的作用。该文以区域耕地的粮食供给能力和粮食生产安全量预测为基础,建立了区域耕地粮食生产保障风险的评价方法,并以洞庭湖区为例开展了以县(市、区)为基本单元的实证研究。结果表明:洞庭湖区耕地资源对全国综合食物安全的保障情况较好,但部分县(市、区)的风险等级较高,且临湖区域的风险较相对远离洞庭湖区域的风险高,需要提高粮食生产水平并控制耕地非农化。该文所提出的区域耕地粮食生产保障能力及其风险评价方法为研究和评估不同区域粮食安全状况与耕地资源之间的相互关系提供参考。Food security always attracts strong attention from researchers and policy makers in China, because it has more than one fifth of the world’s population, but the total cultivated area accounts for only about seven percent of the world’s total cultivated area. However, relevant studies were normally conducted at the national level, which generally considered China’s food security as a whole or used a single index system set for analysis. Therefore, study on food security from a regional scale will be of great value for policy makers. Grain production guarantee capacity of regional cultivated land is the satisfaction degree of regional grain supply to meet the national grain demand, which is mainly influenced by local cultivated land resources, cropping systems, and socio-economic factors. Regional total grain demand should be measured from a national perspective because of the mobility of grain and population;more specifically, it should be calculated based on the proportion of regional resource endowments in the national total endowments. In this paper, a framework is proposed to evaluate regional grain production capacity and the corresponding security level, and the Grey System Model is used to estimate regional grain production capacity under three different scenarios （normal harvest years, bad harvest years, and good harvest years） based on the historical grain production levels. After that, scenarios are selected that could meet the national grain demand and divide the risks of grain production guarantee capacity into four grades, i.e., low risk, small risk, medium risk, and high risk. To test this approach, the Dongting Lake area （located in the northeastern part of Hunan province） was chosen as the case study area, and 2020 was selected as the predicted year. The results show that the risk level of grain production guarantee capacity of the Dongting Lake area is low risk under normal conditions, which means the grain production capacity of the Dongting Lake area can meet the national grain de

关 键 词：粮食生产 风险评价 区划 耕地 综合食物安全 洞庭湖区 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F302