我国煤炭产能调控的系统动力学建模与政策模拟研究  

System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Policy Regulation of Coal Production Capacity

作　　者：丛威[1,2] 郝亦纯[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院,北京100083 [2]中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院,北京102249 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国能源》2014年第3期29-34,共6页Energy of China

摘　　要：本文从我国煤炭产业发展的突出问题出发,提出实施煤炭产能调控的必要性及其内涵,并针对煤炭产能调控政策所涉及的经济、社会、资源和环境的系统复杂性,构建了煤炭产能调控SD模型。应用所建立的模型,对相关调控政策做模拟分析和系统评价。This paper analyzes the problems arising from the fast growth of coal capacity in our country, then it puts forward that the government should establish coal capacity regulation and analyzes its dynamic mechanism. Combing related variables for the coal production capacity regulation, and applying Pearson correlation analysis to screen dynamic factors of coal capacity regulation, this paper builds coal capacity regulation SD model accordingly. By use of SD model＇s simulation functions, the future coal demand, coal supply capacity and output of raw coal is simulated respectively.

关 键 词：煤炭 产能调控 政策模拟 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F224