基于SPEI的中国西北地区气象干旱变化趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of Meteorological Drought Change in Northwest China Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

作　　者：任培贵 张勃[1] 张调风[1] 李小亚[1] 陈乐[1] 卢李朋[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2014年第1期182-187,192,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“水资源约束下的黑河流域土地利用覆盖变化模拟研究”(40961038);生态经济学省级重点学科(5001-021);西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)

摘　　要：中国西北地区深居欧亚大陆腹地,是同纬度最干旱的地区之一,如果持续干旱,将对该地区社会经济发展产生严重的影响。因此,深入研究西北地区的干旱特征,为制定改善生态环境,促进西北经济发展有着重要的意义。标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)将温度对蒸散的影响融合在内,是全球气候变暖背景下研究干旱的新理想指标。采用1959—2011年西北地区149个具有代表性的气象站点的资料,对西北地区近53a干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明,西北地区普遍存在干旱现象。从年际变化来看,该区呈变干趋势,1996年发生突变。从季节的变化来看,春、夏、秋明显变干,冬季有变湿趋势,变湿趋势不明显。春、夏、秋季发生突变,冬季突变不明显。从空间变化来看,春、夏秋大部分地区呈变干趋势,冬季大部分呈变湿趋势。与年鉴资料对比的结果进一步证明SPEI指数在西北地区具有较好的适用性。Northwest China lies in the Eurasia hinterland, which is one of the driest regions as compared with the areas in the same latitude. If drought persists, it will have a severe impact on social and economic development of the northwest region. Therefore, study of drought characteristics in Northwest China is of great significance to the eco-environment improvement and the promotion of economic development in the region. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（SPED combining the influence of temperature on evapo- transpiration is a new ideal indicator in the research on drought under the background of global warming. The data from 149 representative meteorological stations in Northwest China in 1959--2011 were used to an- alyze the temporal and spatial variation of drought. Results showed that drought was a universally existed fact in the northwest. From the inter-annual perspective, the region showed a drought trend with an abrupt change in 1996. Form the seasonal changes, the weather became drought in spring, summer and autumn, and had a humid tend in winter, which is not obvious. Worsening trend occurred in spring, summer and autumn, hut was not obvious in winter. Spatially, most regions had a drought trend in spring and summer and a humid tend in winter. Compared with almanac data, SPEI, as a drought index, is confirmed to be applicable in Northwest China.

关 键 词：SPEI 西北地区 干旱趋势 季节变化 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学]