基于影响网的仿真风险分析  

Simulation Risk Analysis Based on Influence Nets

作　　者：陈永兴[1] 吴晓燕[1] 滕江川[1] 卜祥伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院,西安710051

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2014年第1期125-130,共6页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2012JM8020)

摘　　要：针对仿真风险难以量化分析的问题,提出了基于影响网的仿真风险分析方法。考虑到仿真失效影响的多样性,对仿真风险的描述进行了改进,以风险分析的失效模式、决策效应和严重等级为节点,建立仿真风险分析影响网模型,设计了影响网参数的确定方法,实现了失效模式及因果关系的定量化表达,给出了影响网因果关系的运算方法,通过引入二元语义方法实现了分析结果的综合,得到了半定量形式的仿真风险分析结果。通过实例应用证明了该方法的有效性和可用性。A simulation risk analysis method based on influence nets is proposed for simulation risk quantitative analysis. The simulation risk description is improved for considering variety impact of simulation failure. The influence nets model of simulation risk analysis is established by taking failure modes, decision effect and impact levels as influence nets nodes. A method for determining influence nets parameters is designed to make the quantitative description of failure mode and causal relationship to be reality. An algorithm to calculate the causal strength is given. The semi-quantitative express of simulation risk analysis is carried out by introducing two-tuple linguistic to mass the analysis results. Finally, an example is given to prove the validity and feasibility of this method.

关 键 词：因果强度 影响网 风险分析 仿真风险 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]