野猪资源优化管理的动态经济分析及实证研究  

Optimal Management Model and Applied Study on Wild Boar Resource in China

作　　者：陈文汇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2014年第2期165-172,共8页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71003006);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(RW2013-06)

摘　　要：野猪种群数量恢复既显示了森林资源保护的成效，又带来了野猪管理的新问题。如何实现保护生态平衡与保障人们生产生活和财产安全成为野猪管理的一个重要命题。以野猪资源为对象，以Logistic模型为基础，通过系统分析野猪种群发展变化与社会经济发展的关系，从系统整体角度考虑野猪资源的优化管理问题。在自然条件方面，以开放生物种群资源生长的Logistic增长模型作为约束条件；在社会发展方面，考虑产业资本投入的影响；在经济政策方面，以税收或补贴为约束条件，运用成本收益分析建立野猪资源持续利用的动态经济均衡模型，并利用常微分方程、最大值原理等数学方法求解得到最优资源存量水平和最优猎捕量。以浙江省和福建省野猪种群资源为例，对模型中的各约束条件进行拟合，得到浙江省最优种群量为6．62～10．32×10^4头，最优年猎捕量为1．25～1．44×10^4头；福建省最优种群量为10．90-20×10^4头，最优年猎捕量为1．74～2．20x10^4头，并进一步分析了2个省野猪资源最优存量和最优捕获量受社会贴现率的影响程度和相关管理策略。The increase of wild boar population not only shows forest resource protection effect, but also brings a new problem of wild boar resource management. It is a crucial problem that how to balance be- tween ecosystem conservation and people＇s living, production and property safety. We used Logistic model to analyze the relationship between changes of wild boar population and economic development systemati- cally to think over the optimal management of wild boar resource. About natural conditions, Logistic growing model with an open biology growth was regarded as the restriction condition; considering of social development, we considered on effects of capital inputs; for economy policies, tax or subsidy acted as re- striction condition. The dynamic economic equilibrium model about wild boar resource could be built ap- plying analysis of cost-benefit. After using some mathematical methods, including differential equation and maximum value principle, the quantities of the optimal stock and the optimal harvest could be calculated. We selected the wild boar resource management in Zhejiang and Fujian of China as cases to create the ap- plied model. The optimal population quantities were between 66.2 thousands and 103.2 thousands , the optimal harvest quantities were between 12.5 thousands and 14.4 thousands in Zhejiang Province, and the optimal population quantities were between 109 thousands and 200 thousands the optimal harvest quantities were between 17.4 thousands and 22 thousands in Fujian Province. Influencesthat how discount rate af- fects the optimal population and harvest quantities of wild boar was analyzed.

关 键 词：野猪资源 最优管理 动态经济模型 种群水平 

分 类 号：S764.9[农业科学—森林保护学]