台风浪对掠海飞行安全性的影响  

Analysis of influence on the security of sea skimming caused by a typhoon wave

作　　者：郑崇伟[1,2] 邵龙潭[1] 林刚[1,2] 潘静[3] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工业装备结构分析国家重点试验室 [2]92538部队气象台 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2014年第3期301-306,共6页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2012CB957803);公益行业(气象)科研专项资金资助项目(GYHY201306026)

摘　　要：目前击水概率在大范围内的研究较少,不能很好地为掠海飞行提供依据。以CCMP风场驱动海浪模式SWAN对台风"梅花"所致台风浪进行精细化数值模拟,实现大范围海域的击水概率研究。结果表明:SWAN模式较好地刻画了台风"梅花"所形成的台风浪场。模拟的海浪数据具有较高精度,模拟有效波高略大于观测有效波高。台风"梅花"行进过程中,大浪区主要分布于危险半圆,尤其是第四象限。台风浪给中国海的击水概率场造成了很大影响。当飞行高度为5 m时,中国海大部分海域的击水概率在60%以上,危险半圆的高值中心可达85%以上;10 m高度击水概率普遍比5 m高度击水概率低30%左右。There has been little research done on the ditching probability in a large area at present , which is insuffi-cient for providing proper reference for route planning of sea-skimming .In this study , the typhoon wave caused by＆quot;Muifa＆quot;was simulated using the simulating waves nearshore （ SWAN ） wave model with the cross-calibrated , multi-platform （ CCMP ） wind field as the driving field , and the analysis of the ditching probability in a large area was realized .Results show that the SWAN wave model depicts the typhoon wave field very well .The simulated wave data has high precision , and the simulated significant wave height （ SWH ） is slightly bigger than the observed SWH.During typhoon ＆quot;Muifa＆quot;, the large value area of the SWH was mainly distributed in the dangerous semicir-cle , especially the fourth quadrant .The ditching probability field of the China Sea was affected by typhoon ＆quot;Muifa＆quot;significantly .When the flying height is 5 m above the sea surface , the ditching probability in most of the China Sea is above 60%, and can even extend above 85%in the dangerous semicircle .When the flying height is 10 m, the ditching probability is about 30%lower than when the flying height is 5 m.

关 键 词：CCMP风场 SWAN海浪模式 台风浪 击水概率 掠海飞行 

分 类 号：P79[天文地球—海洋科学] P731.22