我国生猪产业重大疫病灾害风险度量与评估研究  

Risk measurement and assessment for major epidemic disease of pig industry in China

作　　者：闫丽君[1] 陶建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2014年第4期176-180,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD106)

摘　　要：主要研究我国生猪重大疫病风险评估的方法。通过将疫病风险与生猪死亡数之间的关系进行量化,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟解决所需样本不足的问题;运用极值POT模型对我国生猪疫病灾害损失尾部分布进行了有效拟合,构建了生猪重大疫病损失的广义Pareto分布模型。利用风险价值法,实证分析和度量了我国生猪疫病发生的风险水平,计算出我国不同等级的生猪疫病风险损失的95%置信区间,构建了我国生猪疫病风险评估的基本框架,并提出减轻和控制我国生猪重大疫病风险的政策建议。This paper studied an evaluation method for disease risk of pig industry in China. Making the relationship between disease risk and the death of pigs, Monte Carlo simulation was used to expand sample size. Peak over threshold approach based on the extreme value theory was used to fit the distribution of disease risk of pigs, and value at risk was used to assess disease risk of pigs. The 95% confidence interval of the loss was calculated in the scenario of different level of disease risk, a basic framework of the pig disease risk assessment was constructed. In the end, the adviees of reducing and controlling the disease risk has were put forwad.

关 键 词：生猪疫病 蒙特卡洛模拟 POT模型 风险价值法 

分 类 号：S828[农业科学—畜牧学] S851.2[农业科学—畜牧兽医]