基于多源信息融合的冲击地压态势评估方法  

Situation assessment method of rock burst based on multi-source information fusion

作　　者：贾瑞生[1,2] 闫相宏[1] 孙红梅[1] 樊建聪[1] 杨惠斌 吴春芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学信息科学与工程学院,山东青岛266590 [2]矿山灾害预防控制-省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地,山东青岛266590 [3]霍州煤电集团有限公司生产技术处,山西霍州031400

出　　处：《采矿与安全工程学报》2014年第2期187-195,共9页Journal of Mining & Safety Engineering

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK04B06);国家自然科学基金项目(61203305);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2013EEM019)

摘　　要：冲击地压态势评估是煤矿安全监测预警领域的热点及难题之一。本文以微震、电磁辐射及声发射等实时监测数据为基础,将态势评估理论引入冲击地压预测领域,建立了基于监测系统日志审计与实时修正算法相结合的冲击态势评估模型,通过改进D-S证据理论提出一种冲击地压态势量化方法。利用该方法计算得到连续时段的冲击地压态势值后,分别基于一阶灰色模型GM(1,1)及ARMA模型对冲击地压态势值进行预测并对比分析。实例结果及相关分析表明,所提冲击地压态势预测方法合理有效,能动态地反映冲击地压的发展趋势。Rock burst situation assessment is one of the key and difficult issues in the safety monitoring and early warning field of coal mining. In this paper, based on real-time data from microseism, acoustic emission and electromagnetic radiation monitoring, situation assessment theory was introduced to the rock burst prediction, and a new situation assessment model of rock burst was established based on log audit of monitoring system and real-time correction algorithm. In addition, the situation quantitative method of rock burst was put forward by improving D-S evidence theory. Moreover, by using this method to calculate situation values in continual time points, the predictive values of rock burst situation were calculated and analyzed based on GM （1, 1） and ARMA models, respectively. Test results and related analysis show that the proposed situation prediction method of rock burst is reasonable and effective, and can reflect the development trend of rock burst dynamically.

关 键 词：冲击地压 信息融合 态势评估 D—S证据理论 日志审计 

分 类 号：TD353[矿业工程—矿井建设]