房地产“限购令”政策效果研究  

The Analysis on the Effects of the Housing Restriction Policy in China' s Real-estate Market

作　　者：韩永辉[1] 黄亮雄[2] 邹建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 [2]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院,广东广州510420

出　　处：《经济管理》2014年第4期160-170,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国地方政府产业政策对产业结构及资源配置效率的影响研究"(71303063);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目"区域协调发展下的土地利用和配置效率研究及优化对策"(12YJC790266);广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目"产业结构调整的生态环境影响效应及其机制研究"(GD13YYJ04)

摘　　要：实现居者有其房,是人们良好的愿景。近年不断攀升的房价直接影响着社会幸福感的提高。为此,我国推出房地产"限购令",以期调整房地产市场,控制房价。本文着重分析此次"限购令"的政策效果。梳理了影响城市房价各种因素的文献;以全国33个大中城市的月度数据为研究样本,构建倍差法、类倍差法和倾向得分匹配法三种房地产"限购令"政策绩效评价模型,剔除其他房价影响因素,使用面板数据Pool-OLS和系统GMM计量分析方法检验"限购令"对房价的独立政策效果。结果表明,房地产限购政策对抑制房价上涨,促进房价理性回归起了显著作用,但其作用力度仍待加强。最后,提出我国房地产调控的相关政策建议。In recent years, the rising housing price has affected the improvement of social happiness. It＇ s diffi- cult and expensive to buy a house, which remains an obsession for ordinary people. Therefore, the housing restriction policy has been implemented in order to adjust the real estate market and control the housing price. After several years＇ implementation,it＇ s time to analyze its effects. This paper focuses on the effects of the housing restriction policy. Firstly, we sort out literature about the factors influencing housing price of cities, including income, expecta- tions, regional economic and social investment and monetary policy. Based on the results of analysis, we pick up fac- tors influencing housing prices as controlled variables of the empirical analysis. Then, using the data of 33 large or medium-sized cities as the research samples, we modeled three performance evaluation model of housing restriction policy by means of DID, Class DID and Propensity Score Matching methods to eliminate other influencing factors on house price. Besides, we applied panel data Pool-OLS and System GMM to test the independent effects that the housing restriction policy had on the housing price in our country. Under DID model, cities with the implementation of the restriction policy belong to treatment group while those without belong to control group. By means of control- ling other factors, we compare the difference between two groups after the implementation of restriction policy so as to examine the effects of restriction policy. The results show that if we consider real-estate restriction policy as an in- dependent factor during the sample period, it restrained regional housing prices significantly. However, considering the range of controlling housing price, housing price dropped 40 Yuan per square meter under Pool-OLS estimation method and dropped 57 -60 Yuan per square meter under System GMM method. Compared with DID method, Class DID method allow the existence of common time trend of treatment group and cont

关 键 词：房地产 限购令 倍差法 系统矩估计 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]