局地自适应多级模式降水预报  

AN ADAPTIVE MULTILEVEL MODEL SYSTEM FORECASTING LOCAL PRECIPITATION

作　　者：万齐林[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2001年第1期71-76,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：介绍了一个局地自适应多级模式降水预报系统，以及各级模式对1998年6月9日降水的预报结果,并相互比较。预报结果是：广州区域中心业务模式（75 km水平格距）较好地反映了这次降水过程，依托其上的局地各级模式（分别为25 km、5 km水平格距）能够逐级进一步细致地描述降水过程的空间和时间的分布。这表明自适应多级模式是局地降水预报客观、定量化的有效方法。结果也有利于实际预报人员进一步了解各级模式性能，以便更合理有效地应用数值模式所提供的信息。： This paper introduce an adaptive multilevel numerical model system forecasting local precipitation, and present the comparative test predicting the precipitation process at June 9,1998. The results show the operational numerical model (GZTM, 75km resolution) of Guangzhou Region Meteorology Center could forecast the precipitation process successfully, and the local models(25km,5km resolution respectively) based on GZTM could forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation more well and truly. This indicates that adaptive multilevel numerical model system is an available method of forecasting local precipitation. Form this paper, forecaster can comprehend the capability of each-level models, and make use of the model production more reasonably.

关 键 词：自适应多级模式 局地降水预报 模式性能 数值预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]