基于社会福利的央行货币政策目标利率选择——动态随机一般均衡模型下的实证分析  

Target Interest Rate Selection of Social Welfare-Based Monetary Policy:An Empirical Analysis with Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：岳娟丽[1] 徐晓伟 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]河北银行金融市场部,河北石家庄050011

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2014年第2期33-43,共11页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"全球金融危机下我国先进制造业发展战略研究"(08&ZD039);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"突发冲击的产业间传导与维持中国经济稳定的关键产业识别及优化管理研究"(12YJC790292)

摘　　要：考虑微观主体的行为决策和货币政策的社会福利效应,采用能系统涵盖产出、消费、劳动以及社会福利效应的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),以中国1998至2012年季度数据作为样本,实证研究中国完成利率市场化后,央行货币政策目标利率的选择问题。结果表明:央行分别采用Shibor007、R007和IBO007三种目标利率进行调控时,货币政策对实体经济的影响路径基本一致;就经济敏感性而言,R007要优于其余两者;就福利损失而言,采用R007作为货币政策目标利率时,货币政策使得产出、消费和劳动的波动率最小,造成的福利损失最小。综合来看,R007是央行货币政策目标利率的较好选择,我国应完善银行间质押式回购利率体系,逐步把R007培育成为利率市场化条件下的货币政策目标利率。Considering the decision-making behavior of microcosmic bodies and the social welfare effects of monetary policy and taking China＇s quarterly data from 1998 to 2012 as the samples, this paper adopts the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE）, which can systematicly cover production, consumption, labor and social welfare effects, to conduct an empirical study of the target rate selection of the central bank＇s monetary policy after the completion of interest rote liberalization in China. The results show that when the central bank employs the three target rates of Shibor007, R007and IBO007 respectively to exercise its control, the effect path of monetary policy on the real e-conomy is basically the same. In terms of economic sensitivity, R007 is superior to the other two. In terms of welfare losses, when using R007 as a target rate of monetary policy, the monetary policy can make the minimal volatility of output, consumption and labor, and the minimal loss of welfare. On the whole, R007 is a better choice of target rate for the central bank＇s monetary policy. China should improve the inter-bank pledge-style rope rate system, and cultivate R007 as the target rate of monetary policy step by step.

关 键 词：社会福利 目标利率 动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE) 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]