基于多维灰色预测的堤坝安全监测模型  

Dam Safety Monitoring Model Based on Multi-dimension Grey prediction

作　　者：赵丽萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学软件学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《水力发电》2014年第4期88-90,共3页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61162001)

摘　　要：传统的水工混凝土结构裂缝安全监测模型只考虑水压、温度和时间等因素,不考虑裂缝自身的参数。根据断裂力学原理,针对裂纹深度和初始开合度,分析裂缝张开位移(COD)的影响因素。由于裂缝的深度和初始开合度不易检测和测量,存在多个相互影响和关联的变量,采用多维灰色预测模型(MGM),建立裂缝的异常诊断模型,对裂缝的突变和渐变进行预测,从而建立改进的安全监测模型。The traditional safety monitoring models for hydraulic concrete structure cracks only consider the loading factors, such as hydraulic head, temperature and time, and without taking into account the parameters of crack itself. The crack depth and initial opening are considered here besides the usual factors based on further analysis of the impact factors of Crack Opening Displacement （COD） according to Fracture Mechanics. Due to the fact that the crack depth and initial opening are not easily detected and measured in usual cases and there is interaction or interrelation between existing variables, a Multi--dimension Grey Model （MGM） is introduced to solve the problem and a criterion of abnormality diagnosis for crack is established to predict the mutation and the gradient of crack. In this way, the improved safety monitoring model is established.

关 键 词：水工混凝土结构 安全监测 裂缝开合度 灰色系统 MGM(1 n)模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]