基于探空资料因子组合分析方法的冰雹预报  

Hail Forecast Based on Factor Combination Analysis Method and Sounding Data

作　　者：刘晓璐[1] 刘建西[1] 张世林[1] 刘平[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省人工影响天气办公室,成都610072

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2014年第2期168-175,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术面上推广项目(CMATG2010M21)

摘　　要：以1978—2007年四川省宜宾探空站200 km范围内共45例降雹事件与非降雹事件作为时间样本，将利用T lnp探空资料计算表征热力、动力、水汽条件、温度、高度等物理参数作为预报因子，采用因子组合分析方法对3244个预报因子进行筛选，找出影响宜宾探空站附近降雹的预报因子，并计算得到它们的阈值及组合关系，建立了冰雹预报指标判别式。两个主要因子为400 hPa饱和湿静力温度与850 hPa湿静力温度之差（T＊σ400-Tσ850）和400 hPa 与地面垂直气压梯度之差（Gz400-Gzsurface），两个条件因子为700 hPa水汽压与饱和水汽压之差（e700-es700）和700 hPa 露点温度与饱和湿静力温度之差（Td700-T＊σ700）。将2008年全年732例时次的T lnp探空资料代入判别式进行试报，探测率为84%，空报率为67.7%，成功指数为30.4%，试报结果表明：基于探空资料因子组合分析方法得到的冰雹预报指标判别方法可行，具有一定准确性。The emergence of the small probability of severe weather events is attributed to specific factor combinations of some early meteorological elements. The nonlinear and complicated characteristics of factor combinations can be used to find the relationship between forecast object and forecast factors. Based on this method, the relationship between hail events in the south of Sichuan Basin and some meteorological elements calculated by the sounding data is investigated, and a hail forecast index discriminant is established. The discriminant is physically significant and applied in daily operation. Hailstorm is a meso scale weather system with the temporal scale of several to dozens of hours, and the horizontal scale of several hundred kilometers. In real business, the T lnp sounding data are observed at 0800 BT and 2000 BT every day, and the hail forecasting is carried out every 12 hours. A sample sets of 7 hail events and 38 non hail events near Yibin Station is established. Using the T lnp sounding data, 3422 meteorological elements are calculated as forecast factors, including temperature, height, moisture, saturation vapor pressure, potential pseudo equivalent temperature, K index and so on. Based on factors combination analysis method, 2 main factors and 2 conditional factors are selected from 3422 meteorological elements and their critical values are calculated. The main factors are T＊σ400-Tσ850 and Gz400-Gzsurface, and the conditional factors are e700-es700 and Td700-T＊σ700， T＊σ400 stands for saturated wet static temperature at 400 hPa, and Tσ850 stands for wet static temperature at 850 hPa; Gz400 and Gzsurface stand for vertical pressure gradient at 400 hPa and the surface level; e700 and es700 stand for vapour pressure and saturated vapour pressure at 700 hPa; �

关 键 词：因子组合分析方法 探空指标 冰雹预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]