竞争失效场合相似产品可靠性的综合评估  

Reliability evaluation for relative products with competing risks data

作　　者：毛松[1] 师义民[1] 孙天宇[1] 孙玉东[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学应用数学系,西安710072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第4期957-963,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171164;70471057)

摘　　要：对小样本情形下的联合Ⅱ型截尾寿命试验进行综合分析.针对产品可能存在多种失效模式问题,建立试验数据服从独立指数分布的竞争失效模型.基于极大似然估计,利用条件矩母函数导出参数的精确分布,据此构造参数的精确置信区间.并采用Bootstrap方法给出参数的区间估计最后,通过Monte-Carlo仿真比较估计的优良性。A joint type-II censoring model was analyzed under the small sample size. Aiming at the problem that units may be exposed to more than one fatal failure factors, we focused on competing risks model with independent exponential data. Based on the maximmn likelihood estimator （MLE）, we developed the exact distributions of parameters and exact confidence intervals through the use of the moment generating functions. Furthermore, approximate confidence intervals were also constructed by Bootstrap method. A Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted to compare the performances of different estimations. And finally, an example was discussed to illustrate the validity of the method.

关 键 词：联合II型截尾 竞争失效 条件矩母函数 置信区间 Bootstrap区间估计 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]