2011-2013年国家传染病自动预警系统运行结果分析  

The implement performance of China Infections Diseases Automated-alert and Response System in 2011-2013

作　　者：李中杰[1] 马家奇[2] 赖圣杰[1] 张洪龙[1] 任翔[1] 曾令佳[1] 余建兴[1] 王丽萍[1] 金连梅[3] 余宏杰[1] 王劲峰[4] 兰亚佳[5] 杨维中[6] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制处传染病监测预警中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室, 北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 [5]四川大学华西公共卫生学院 [6]中国疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2014年第4期252-258,共7页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 分析2011-2013年国家传染病自动预警系统（简称预警系统）在中国内地31个省份的运行情况,为有效改进与完善预警系统提供依据.方法 调查2011-2013年预警系统在中国内地31个省份对32种传染病产生的预警信号数量、响应情况和预警信号判断结果,分析比较3年预警信号响应率、响应时间的变化.结果 2011-2013年预警系统共发出960 831条预警信号,信号响应率为98.87％（949 936条）,响应时间中位数（P25～p75）为1.0（0.4～3,3）h.其中,固定阈值预警方法产生242 355条预警信号,2011-2013年预警信号响应率分别为96.37％ （62 349/64 703）、98.75％（68 413/69 282）和99.37％（107 690/108 370）,响应时间中位数（P25～P75）分别为1.3（0.3 ～9.7）、0.8（0.2～4.9）和0.7（0.2～4.2）h;通过初步核实、现场调查与实验室检测,最终确认了100 232例病例,占预警信号数的41.36％.时间模型预警方法共产生718 476条预警信号,平均每县每周约产生预警信号1.53条,其中8 155条预警信号（1.14％）经初步核实后被判断为疑似事件;2011-2013年预警信号响应率分别为98.89％（231 149/233 746）、98.90％（254 182/257 015）和99.31％（226 153/227 715）,响应时间中位数（P25～P75）分别为1.1（0.5～3.3）、1.0（0.5～2.9）和1.0（0.5 ～2.6）h.结论 2011-2013年预警系统的预警信号响应率和响应及时性保持较高水平,且呈现逐年提高的趋势,但疑似事件信号占全部预警信号的比例有待提高.Objective To analyze the implement performance of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System （CIDARS） of 31 provinces in China's Mainland,and to provide the evidences for further promoting the application and improvement of this system.Methods The amount of signals,response situation and verification outcome of signals related to 32 infectious diseases of 31 provinces in China's Mainland in CIDARS were investigated from 2011 to 2013,the changes by year on the proportion of responded signals and timeliness of signal response were descriptively analyzed.Results A total of 960 831 signals were generated nationwide on 32 kinds of infectious diseases in the system,with 98.87% signals （949 936） being responded,and the median（the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile（P25-P75）） of time to response was 1.0（0.4-3.3） h.Among all the signals,242 355 signals were generated by the fixed-value detection method,the proportion of responded signals was 96.37% （62 349/64 703）,98.75 % （68 413/69 282） and 99.37% （107 690/108 370）,respectively,and the median （P25-P75） of time to response was 1.3 （0.3-9.7）,0.8 （0.2-4.9） and 0.7 （0.2-4.2） h,respectively.After the preliminary data verification,field investigation and laboratory test by local public health staffs,100 232 cases （41.36%） were finally confirmed.In addition,718 476 signals were generated by the temporal aberration detection methods,and the average amount of signal per county per week throughout the country were 1.53,and 8 155 signals （1.14%） were verified as suspected outbreaks.During these 3 years,the proportion of signal response was 98.89% （231 149/233 746）,98.90% （254 182/257 015） and 99.31% （226 153/227 715）,respectively,and the median（P25-P75） of time to response was 1.1 （0.5-3.3）,1.0 （0.5-2.9） and 1.0 （0.5-2.6） h,respectively.Conclusion From 2011 to 2013,the proportion of responded signals and response timeliness of CIDARS maintained a rather high level,and further p

关 键 词：传染病 疾病暴发流行 预警系统 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]