中国与金砖国家贸易关系持续时间研究  

Study on Duration of Trade Relationships between China and BIRCS

作　　者：谭晶荣[1] 童晓乐 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第4期90-100,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目(批准号:13&ZD046);国家自然科学基金(批准号:71173193);浙江省社科规划重点项目(批准号:12JDQY02Z);浙江省自然科学基金(批准号:Y6110266);浙江省软科学项目(编号2012C35046)资助

摘　　要：本文采用WITS数据库1995-2012年中国与金砖国家HS6分位数进出口贸易数据,运用生存函数分析法,分析了中国与金砖国家的进出口贸易持续时间,并对其稳健性进行了检验。研究发现中国与金砖国家贸易持续时间普遍较短,平均持续时间为4.1年,其中48%的贸易关系持续时间低于一年。在稳健性检验中发现农产品贸易持续时间虽然很短,但不同类别农产品的进出口贸易持续时间存在较大差异。随着贸易持续时间的延长,终止风险率明显下降;初始贸易额越大,则贸易持续时间越久。Using relevant HS 6-digit trading data retrieved from the WITS da- tabase, this paper employs survival analysis to study the duration of trade relation- ships with the whole variety of products between China and other BIRCS,. The findings indicate that international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought; the median duration of trade relationships between China and other BRICS tend to be short with an average of 4.1 years, among which 48% of the relationships would sustain for less than a year. Also found is that if a country can sur- vive in the exporting market for the first few years, this trade relationship will face a much smaller probability of failure for a relatively long period of time. Also, the du- rations of trade relationships with different product categories vary significantly, and the relationship usually endures if the initial trade value is large.

关 键 词：金砖国家 持续时间 农产品 生存分析 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]