欧盟对华反倾销反补贴裁决结果的影响因素考察——基于Probit模型的分析  

Factors Influencing Definitive Measures of EU Anti-dumping and Countervailing Investigations on China: An Analysis Based on Probit Model

作　　者：李计广[1] 杨光[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院,北京100029 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2014年第2期119-128,共10页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(13BJY133);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(CXTD4-08)

摘　　要：近年来,欧盟加大了对华反倾销和反补贴调查力度,其中约67%最终采取了惩罚性措施。本文基于Probit模型分析了1989-2013年间欧盟对华143起反倾销和反补贴案件,考察了影响裁决结果的宏观经济和政治经济因素,认为人民币汇率改革的实施、欧委会倾向保护主义以及欧盟经济增长率较高都会降低欧盟对我国出口企业采取惩罚性措施的概率。特别是,欧委会贸易委员倾向于保护主义会增加立案调查数,但最终采取惩罚性措施的概率反而降低,而在欧盟经济增长率低于1.5%时全部采取了惩罚性措施。EU increased anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chi- na in recent years, about 67% of which ended with definitive measures. The paper analyzes 143 EU anti-dumping and countervailing cases against China from 1989 to 2013 based on a probit model, and examines the macroeconomic and political and economic factors influencing the definitive measures. Conclusions are drawn that the implementation of the RMB exchange rate reform, the protection- ist tendency of EC trade commissioner and the higher EU economic growth rate all will reduce the probability of EU punitive measures against China. When the number of investigations increases with the EU trade commissioner inclined to protectionism, the probability of applying punitive measures declines instead, while all the cases ended with punitive measures when the EU economic growth rate was lower than 1.5%.

关 键 词：欧盟 反倾销 反补贴 裁决结果 

分 类 号：F752.02[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]