产业结构、风险特性与最优金融结构  

Industrial Structure,Risk Feature and Optimal Financial Structure

作　　者：龚强[1] 张一林[2] 林毅夫[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院,法学院,金融安全协同创新中心,邮政编码610074 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院,邮政编码100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第4期4-16,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”;国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373210);四川省哲学社会科学规划重大项目(SC13ZD10);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(JBK130502,JBK1307079,JBK130216);西南财经大学“优秀博士论文建设项目”的资助

摘　　要：本文考察银行和金融市场在不同经济发展阶段对产业发展的不同作用。研究发现,当产业的技术和产品较为成熟时,风险相对较低,资金回报较稳健,银行是更加有效的融资渠道;而在技术前沿的产业中,创新和研发是企业发展的关键,技术风险和市场风险都较高,金融市场能够提供更加有力的支持。随着经济发展,产业结构不断升级,金融结构也必将随产业结构的变化而变迁。在中国经济由成熟制造业主导的阶段,银行为主的金融体系为经济发展提供了重要支持。随着中国经济转型和产业升级,许多产业不断接近世界技术前沿,金融市场的重要性将逐步显现,但良好的市场投资环境是金融市场有效发挥作用的前提条件。本文发现与相关经验事实一致,能够为解析中国金融体系的历史、现状和发展提供新的视角,同时为以经济转型和产业升级为目标的金融改革提供理论基础。This paper investigates the different roles of banks and financial markets in facilitating industry development during different stages of economic development. Bank financing is more efficient than the financial market when industries are characterized by mature technology and products with low risk and steady return of investment. However, in technology- frontier industries where innovation and R＆D are crucial to success, the financial market is more supportive than banks. Along with the development of economic and upgrading of industrial structure, the financial structure must change as well. When Chinese industries are dominated by mature manufacturing industries, the bank-oriented financial system provides important support for economic development. During the economic transition and industrial upgrading when many industries approach technology frontier, the importance of the financial market will become more significant. Nonetheless, only based on the improvement of investment environment can the financial market play its role. Our findings are consistent with empirical facts. Moreover, our framework can provide new perspective to understand the past, current and future development of Chinese financial system, as well as the theoretical foundation for Chinese financial reform in order to promote economic transition and industrial upgrading.

关 键 词：产业结构 金融结构 发展阶段 银行 金融市场 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F124