适应性学习、宏观经济预期与中国最优货币政策  

Adaptive Learning,Macroeconomic Expectation and the Optimal Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：卞志村[1,2] 高洁超[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院,邮政编码210046 [2]美国南加州大学马歇尔商学院 [3]南京财经大学金融研究中心,邮政编码210046

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第4期32-46,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究"(12&ZD064);"‘稳增长;调结构;防通胀'三重目标下我国货币政策优化与预期管理研究"(11&ZD011);国家社科基金项目"公众学习;通胀预期形成与最优货币政策研究"(11BJY145);国家自然科学基金专项基金项目"基于宏观审慎的财政货币政策体制选择研究"(71240009)的阶段性成果;教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(NCET)和江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)的资助

摘　　要：传统货币政策框架所定义的最优货币政策是围绕中央银行二次型损失函数展开的。近年来有研究表明,货币政策是否最优的重要标准是能否使经济趋于理性预期均衡水平。本文从这一视角出发,进一步探讨中央银行与公众间不同策略互动如何导致实际经济偏离理性预期均衡水平。首先,在新凯恩斯模型框架内,对理性预期假设进行适当放松,通过引入适应性学习刻画宏观经济预期形成过程。其次,通过动态数值模拟,计算不同货币政策目标制下实际经济对均衡水平的偏离程度以及相应的均值和波动水平。最后,分析并甄选我国最优货币政策框架。本文发现,灵活通货膨胀目标制和混合名义收入目标制均可成为我国最优货币政策的有效实现形式,可促进经济平稳、协调发展。The optimal monetary policy defined by the traditional framework of monetary policy is built around the quadratic loss function of the central bank. Some existing research has recently showed that the important standard of optimal policy is whether it could make the economy converge to the rational expectation equilibrium. From this perspective, this paper further explores how the different strategic interactions between the central bank and the public lead economy to deviation from the REE. First, it depicts the forming process of macro expectations through introducing adaptive learning in the framework of the New Keynesian Model. Second, we calculate the deviation degree of economy to the REE and the level of mean and volatility of economy by using the method of dynamic numerical simulation under different strategic interactions. Last, we analyze the results above all and distinguish the optimal monetary policy. This paper shows flexible inflation target or mixed nominal income target could be used by the central bank to make the economy steady and develop in harmony.

关 键 词：适应性学习 新凯恩斯模型 最优货币政策 动态模拟 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]