河北省农户蔬菜市场价格风险评估  

Evaluation of Vegetable Price Risk in Hebei Province

作　　者：张欣[1] 张润清[1] 王健[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济贸易学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《北方园艺》2014年第7期193-196,共4页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划资助项目(12YJAZH138)

摘　　要：以河北省蔬菜的季度生产价格为研究对象,以农户出售蔬菜时的实际价格与预期价格的波动为价格风险,通过AD检验、K-S检验以及卡方检验找到拟合价格风险的最优概率分布模型,最终利用风险价值法(VaR法)评估了河北省农户生产经营蔬菜所面临的价格风险。结果表明:虽然河北省蔬菜的价格总体呈上涨趋势,但也面临着不容忽视的价格下跌风险;河北省农户生产蔬菜的价格风险大小依次为芹菜>大白菜>西红柿>甘蓝>黄瓜>茄子。Taking the quarterly producer prices of six kinds of vegetable in Hebei as the object, the volatility between the actual price and the expected price as price risk when the farmers sold their vegetables, found the optimal probability distribution model for the vegetables price risk through the AD test,K-S test and chi-square test,eventually used the Value at Risk method （VaR method） assessed the price risk when farmers product and operate vegetable in Hebei Province. The results showed that although the vegetables prices had an upward trend, but also facing the risk of falling that could not be ignored. The descending order of the vegetable price risks that farmers faced was celery;〉cabbage〉 tomato〉 cabbage〉 cucumber〉eggplant.

关 键 词：农户 蔬菜价格 风险评估 风险价值法 

分 类 号：S63[农业科学—蔬菜学]