1951—2012年降水变化对涪江流域径流的影响  

Impacts of Precipitation Change on the Runoff Change in the Fujiang River Basin During the Period of 1951-2012

作　　者：王勇[1] 许红梅[2] 程炳岩[1] 黄大鹏[2] 谭云廷 罗勇[4] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]丰都县气象局,重庆408200 [4]清华大学地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室/清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2014年第2期127-134,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428401);国家自然科学基金(40971022;41101517)

摘　　要：采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验统计方法,分析涪江流域径流与降水的变化趋势与突变特征,用累积量斜率变化率比较法评估降水对涪江流域径流变化的影响。结果表明,1951—2012年涪江流域年径流量与降水量均表现为显著的减少趋势,突变出现在1968年;20世纪90年代以后降水与径流明显偏少;年径流量与降水量有很好的线性相关关系,但在冬季相关性较差;降水减少是径流减少的主要原因(贡献率为71.4%),而下垫面人类生产活动对径流减少的贡献率为28.6%。The Mann-Kendall test has been applied to detect the trends and abrupt changes of the precipitation and runoff for the Fujiang River basin.The contribution of precipitation to the runoff change has been estimated with the rate of change in the slope of cumulative amount.The results indicate that the annual precipitation and runoff have decreased significantly during the period of 1951-2012,especially after the 1990s,and the abrupt changes of the annual precipitation and runoff both occurred in 1968.The linear relationship between the annual runoff and precipitation is good,but poor in winter.The decrease of runoff could be attributed to precipitation change （71.4％）and human activities （28.6％）.

关 键 词：降水 径流 涪江流域 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] P426.6[水利工程—水文学及水资源]