个体自适应行为对结构化人群中传染病传播动力学的影响  

Effects of adaptive behavior on spreading dynamics of epidemics in structured populations

作　　者：徐致靖[1] 祖正虎[1] 许晴[1] 张文斗[1] 刘巾杰 郑涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事医学科学院生物工程研究所,北京100071

出　　处：《军事医学》2014年第2期129-134,共6页Military Medical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(90924019);"艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治"国家科技重大专项资助项目(2013ZX10004605;2012ZX10004402);全军医学科技"十二五"科研项目(AWS11L009);国家863计划资助项目(2012AA022007)

摘　　要：人的个体行为对传染病在人群中的传播动态具有重要影响。研究和确定个体自适应行为与疫情发展态势之间的关系,是制定科学的信息发布和心理疏导机制从而做到有效防控疫情、避免社会恐慌的主要基础。该文旨在研究面对传染病大规模传播时,个体自适应行为的触发机制及其对传染病传播动力学的影响。通过分析SARS以来几次大规模突发传染病疫情下个体行为实证数据,确认了两种主要的信息源即公共信息和局部信息对个体自适应行为的诱导作用,并采用健康信念模型描述个体自适应行为的演化机制,采用复杂网络模型分析了自适应行为改变对疫情发展动态的影响。突发新发传染病疫情下的实时公共信息和局部信息诱导个体做出自适应的规避行为,从而降低了感染疾病的概率,有效地抑制了疫情的发展。个体自适应行为对传染病传播动力学具有重要的影响,有效的信息发布机制将诱导个体自适应行为的产生,进而对疫情防控产生积极效果,并可避免社会恐慌的产生。Human behavior significantly affects the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases in large populations. The study of the interplay between the adaptive behavior and the epidemic dynamics underlies the professional information release and psychological counseling mechanism and is conducive to disease control and social panic elimination. This paper aims at the investigation of the effect of adaptive behaviors on the spreading dynamics of epidemics in structured populations. We analyzed the empirical data on adaptive behavior from several large epidemics after the outbreak of SARS in 2003 and confirmed the induction effect of two main information sources on adaptive behavior, e. g. , public available information and local perceived information. Then we investigated the effect of adaptive behavior on epidemic dynamics in a structured population based on two primary models, e. g. , health-belief model and network model. The results showed that the individual adaptive behavior had significantly decreased the chance of infection and thus mitigated the epidemics. Human adaptive behavior has a significant effect on spreading dynamics of epidemics. An effective information release mechanism will induce human adaptive behavior and is thus conducive to control of epidemics.

关 键 词：自适应行为 传染病动力学 接触网络 生物安全 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]