上海市人口结构变化预测研究  

Study on Prediction of Population Change in Shanghai

作　　者：王裕明[1] 吉祥[2] 刘彩云[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学电子电气学院 [2]上海工程技术大学管理学院,201620

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2014年第3期89-98,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目(项目编号:10YJA630157);上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金(项目编号:shgcjs016)的资助

摘　　要：以上海市人口为研究对象,运用简化的宋健人口预测模型,科学设定相关参数,测算得出2013-2050年上海市分年龄的人口数据。预测结果表明:不考虑人口迁移,上海市人口将出现持续负增长;考虑人口迁移,外来迁移人口将持续增加,使得2050年人口高达34317096人;人口迁移可有效降低上海市老年赡养系数和总供养系数,促进人口年龄结构合理化,但是无法从根本上解决社会面临的沉重供养负担,人口老龄化趋势难以改变,建议通过采取适时调整生育政策、合理引导人口迁入、适时提高退休年龄、加速产业升级,推进人力资源质量提升等措施以应对上海人口年龄结构的变化。Focusing on population of Shanghai, population data of ditIerent age range m ~nangnal from 2013 to 2050 was calculated by applying simplified Songjian population prediction model and scientific setting of relevant parameters. Prediction results showed that： Shanghai＇s population will continue to appear negative growth without considering migration; Taking into the migration factor, other provinces and cities population will continue to increase, making the population in 2050 reach to 34, 317,096. Besides, Migration can contribute to the rationalization of the age structure of the population by effectively reducing the support coefficient and feed coefficient, it＇s difficult to change the aging population trend, but it couldn＇t solve the heavy dependent burden the social faced. In view of this, we recommend using the timely adjustment of fertility policy, guide immigration reasonably, timely raise the retirement age to accelerate industrial upgrading and promotion of human resources to improve the quality and other measures to cope with changes in the age structure of the population of Shanghai.

关 键 词：人口预测模型 人口年龄结构 迁移 抚养比 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]