基于仿真的劣化装备瞬时可用度估计  

Instantaneous Availability Evaluation of Deteriorating Equipment Based on Simulation

作　　者：黄傲林[1] 李庆民[2] 张光宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学电子工程学院,湖北武汉430033 [2]海军工程大学兵器工程系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2014年第4期9-13,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：总装预研基金资助项目(51327020105)

摘　　要：装备瞬时可用度是装备可靠性和维修性的综合反映,对于失效率为常数的装备可以用马尔可夫方法对其瞬时可用度进行计算;但是对于劣化装备由于其失效率随时间上升,瞬时可用度不能采用解析方法进行求解。针对上述问题,利用虚寿命模型建立了不完全维修条件下装备瞬时可用度的仿真模型,并通过对仿真数据的曲线拟合得到了装备瞬时可用度的近似解析表达式。同时运用大数定律给出了仿真可信度与仿真次数的关系,最后通过多个算例给出了不同初始条件下采用近似解析计算得到的装备瞬时可用度和和仿真的平均绝对误差,说明了改进方法的可行性。Instantaneous availability of the equipment is the comprehensive reflection of its reliability and main tainability. Markov theory can be used to calculate the instantaneous availability of equipments with constant failure rate. But it is difficult to get the instantaneous availability of those deteriorating equipments which usually have in creasing failure rates. Aiming at the problem, a virtual age model was used to represent the maintenance effects to the equipment, and the simulation was designed to evaluate the Instantaneous availability. Curve fitting was taken to get an analytic formula and the relationship between simulation credibility and simulation number of times was also de duced using law of large numbers. Numerical examples with different parameters were given to validate the methods mentioned in this article.

关 键 词：劣化 瞬时可用度 曲线拟合 虚寿命模型 

分 类 号：TJ01[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]