改进的煤与瓦斯突出灰靶预测模型  

Modified grey-target-prediction model for coal and gas outburst

作　　者：何俊[1] 匡帅 王安虎[1] 毋新政[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]河南煤化集团焦煤公司,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第1期12-16,共5页Journal of Henan Polytechnic University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50904024;51274089);河南省重点科技攻关项目(09210230315)

摘　　要：煤与瓦斯突出是威胁煤矿安全生产的重要灾害之一.矿井的突出危险性预测评估工作,对规范矿井生产、保证生产安全有着重要的意义.基于灰色系统理论,选取国内41组矿井现场实测的预测突出危险性单项指标,包括相对瓦斯压力、煤的破坏类型、煤的坚固性系数、煤样的瓦斯放散初速度,选取适当的靶心,建立判断煤与瓦斯突出危险性的改进的灰靶模型.应用该模型对10组矿井实测的数据进行突出危险性判断,结果与实际情况一致,说明基于改进的灰靶模型对矿井煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测是准确可行的.Coal and gas outburst is one of important disasters threatening the safety of a coal mine.Fhusly,the work of coal and gas outburst dangerous prediction has a great significance for regulating the mine production and guiding production safety.Based on grey system theory,41 single index data of coal mine measure stations and appropriate off-target including relative gas pressure,damage types,and rigidity coefficient were selected,and a modified grey target model about hazard possibility division was established to predict the hazard possibility of outburst.When using this model to estimate the coal and gas outburst possibility of 10 coal mines,the result fits the reality.Thus,the model is exact and feasible to estimate the possiblility of coal and gas outburst in practice.

关 键 词：煤与瓦斯突出 灰靶模型 预测 靶心距 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]