渭北黄土台塬区水资源约束下的种植业结构多目标优化研究  

Planting structure multi-objective optimization in the weibei Loess Tableland area with constrained water resources

作　　者：林忆南[1] 金晓斌[1] 李效顺[2] 郭贝贝[1] 周寅康[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210093 [2]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州221116

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期211-218,共8页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：教育部博士点基金(20120091110014);国家自然科学基金(401201386);国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(201011016-08)

摘　　要：渭北黄土台塬区是关中灌溉农业区的重要组成部分,近年来随着当地经济社会快速发展,生活用水、工业用水及生态用水不断增加,种植业灌溉用水受到显著影响,农业发展与水资源供需矛盾日趋突出.本文建立了以充分利用水资源、保障粮食安全、增加种植业产值和提高投资收益等为目标的模糊优化模型,测算了不同投入水平和粮食保障率下的优化方案,利用DEA进行方案优选,结果表明高资金投入(规划目标年种植业总资金投入水平为基期年的1.38倍)粮食供给型(粮食供给率为1.05)方案是该区种植结构优化调整的最佳方案.建议至2015年,研究区播种面积应提高18.8%(增加至52.16×104 hm2),适当提高经济与饲料作物播种比例,将粮经饲作物的三元种植结构比例调整为64:31:5.Rational use of water resources directly affects the productivity of land resources,and the development and utilization of land resources also affects the degree of efficiency of water use.With the worsening situation of agricultural water and the increasing demand of agricultural water,the adj ustment and optimization of region planting structure become one of the most important and effective measures to alleviate the conflict between region agricultural development and water shortages.The necessity of adj usting and optimizing region planting structure is more urgent especially in arid and semi-arid regions.The Loess Plateau region is an important part of the Guanzhong irrigated agricultural area.In recent years,with the rapid development of the local economy and society,domestic water,industrial water and ecological water increased rapidly.Crop irrigation water is significantly affected. Agricultural development and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent.This paper established the planting structure multi-obj ective fuzzy optimization model,which＆amp;nbsp;aim to make full use of water resources,ensuring the food security,increase crop output and improve the return on investment and so on,and measured the optimization programs at different input levels and food security levels,and used the data envelopment analysis （DEA）model to evaluate input-output efficiency values of the optimization programs.High capital investment can improve the efficiency of input and output,high capital investment is better than that of low capital investment.With increased investment in water and soil resources,more money to invest in local advantages crops,planting each benefit significantly improve the efficiency per unit of land is higher than the low level of capital investment,and return on capital investment also increased.The results showed that the type of high capital investment and food supply program is the best program for planting structure optimization in th

关 键 词：种植业结构 水资源约束 多目标优化 渭北 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]