中国化肥消费强度变化驱动效应时空差异与影响因素解析  

The Spatial-Temporal Difference of Driving Effects for Fertilizer Use Intensity Change and Its Determinants in China

作　　者：潘丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学鄱阳湖生态经济研究院,中国江西南昌330013

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第3期121-126,135,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71303099);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ13291);江西省社会科学"十二五"规划项目(13YJ50);江西财经大学校级课题(13);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD155;12&ZD213);第52批中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M521285);第六批中国博士后特别资助项目(2013T60646)

摘　　要：采用2004—2011年31个省(市、区)的数据,对中国化肥消费强度变化的驱动效应进行了测度和时空差异比较,并进一步对影响化肥消费强度变化的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:①2004—2011年,我国化肥消费强度呈显著上升趋势,农业生产结构调整和化肥利用效率变动共同推动了化肥消费强度的增加,且化肥利用效率贡献率高于结构调整贡献率。②不同地区化肥消费强度变化的驱动效应不同。结构调整效应负向驱动地区多位于我国东部地区,效率效应负向驱动地区多位于我国西部地区。③经济发展水平、农业产业结构、人均耕地规模、技术进步、上一期化肥消费强度、城市化发展水平和耕地质量等因素对化肥消费强度产生重要影响。Reducing fertilizer use intensity is an important measure to promote the construction of agricultural ecological civilization. Based on statistical data of 31 provinces in China during 2004-2011 ,the paper measures the driving effects of fertilizer use intensity, compares the spatial-temporal differences of these effects, and then analyzes the determinants of fertilizer use intensity. Results can be obtained as follows：（1 ） During 2004-2011, the agricultural production structure change and fertilizer use efficiency jointly promote the rise rate of fertilizer use intensity. Meanwhile ,the contribution of fertilizer use efficiency was much higher than the contribution of agricultural production structural construction. （2） 1he driving effects for fertilizer use intensity change is different from region to region. Most of the eastern area has negative agricultural production structure construction effect,while most of the western area has negative fertilizer utilization in- tensity effect. （3） Economic development level, agricultural structure, farmland areas per person, technical progress, fertil- izer use intensity of previous cropping year, urbanization development level and farmland quality have significant effects on fertilizer use intensity.

关 键 词：化肥消费强度 驱动效应 因素分解 时空差异 中国 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济]