基坑体系可靠度的条件概率计算方法  

Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability

作　　者：孙长宁 曹净[1] 宋志刚[1] 赵惠敏[1] 桂跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学土木工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《岩土力学》2014年第4期1211-1216,共6页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(No.51108217);云南省科技厅应用基础研究计划项目(No.2011FZ047)

摘　　要：基坑存在多种失效模式,考虑失效模式之间的相关性,双界限法计算体系失效概率存在计算结果区间范围较大的弊端。利用均匀试验和非参数回归方法建立响应面,在响应面的基础上,对Monte Carlo模拟生成的随机参数进行插值,得到各个失效模式指标,结合Pearson相关系数检验两两失效模式之间的相关性,用条件概率方法计算基坑体系失效概率,提出了基于条件概率考虑多失效模式相关的基坑体系可靠度分析方法。在此基础上,通过1个典型算例进行对比分析,计算结果表明,该方法不仅计算简便,而且结果可靠,其结果可为基坑体系可靠度分析理论提供一条新的途径。There are many failure modes in the foundation pit engineering. Considering the correlation between failure modes, the range of system failure probability is large using the Breadth Border method or the narrow bounds method. The response surface is established by using the uniform test and nonparametric regression method. On this basis, in order to obtain the index of each failure mode, the random parameters generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are interpolated. Combined with the Pearson correlation coefficient, the correlation is tested between failure modes. Considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the system reliability analysis method of foundation pit engineering based on conditional probability is put forward. As a typical example, a system failure probability of foundation pit is analyzed by using the conditional probability method. A case study shows that the method is simple and reliable in calculation, so as to provide a new way for the system reliability theory of foundation pit.

关 键 词：基坑体系 失效概率 响应面 条件概率 MONTE CARLO模拟 可靠度 

分 类 号：TU470[建筑科学—结构工程]